Full - stack Engineer - Forecast Coherence & World Models - Remote Eligible

Full-Stack Engineer Focused On Forecast Coherence & World Models

Metaculus is the premier public forecasting platform, with over 1,000,000 forecasts on over 6,000 questions. Metaculus is "epistemic infrastructure", like Wikipedia and Our World In Data, providing the world with trusted, accurate information on a variety of questions, particularly in science and technology. Our mission is to enable everyone to model, understand, predict, and navigate the world's most important and complex challenges.

As a Full-Stack Engineer focused on Forecast Coherence & World Models, you'll pioneer the development of systems that make complex forecasting relationships and underlying world models transparent and accessible. You'll work at the intersection of software engineering and epistemics, building tools that help forecasters create more coherent predictions and make their reasoning legible to both experts and non-experts alike.

This role involves designing and implementing features that elicit, aggregate, and display the relationships between forecasts—from causal connections to necessary conditions—while leveraging AI to assist in world model construction and identify missing variables that could improve forecast quality.

Responsibilities

• Design and implement features for eliciting, aggregating and visualising coherence rules across forecasts, including causal/correlational relationships, martingale processes, necessary/sufficient conditions, etc.

• Develop intuitive interfaces that make complex forecast relationships and world models accessible to non-experts

• Build AI-powered tools for world model elicitation and legibilization, including autonomous coherence rule detection and latent variable suggestion systems

• Integrate new capabilities into the main Metaculus platform and potentially build stand-alone tools for specialised use cases

• Ensure high code quality, performance, and reliability across all implementations

Our Tech Stack

• Frontend: JavaScript, TypeScript, React, Next.js, D3, Tailwind CSS

• Backend: Python, Django, PostgreSQL, Redis, Sentry, Heroku, AWS

• Collaboration: GitHub, Slack, Notion, Jira, Figma